U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Andy Hamilton is the Co-Founder and CEO of When, an AI-powered offboarding platform and severance solution. He has previously co-founded two technology startups, both of which were acquired by public companies. During the Covid pandemic, experiencing a layoff first-hand motivated Andy to create a better off-boarding and post-employment solution for employers. In his personal life, Andy enjoys playing tennis, riding his Peloton, and reading.
Eric Fairchild is a Managing Principal with Capco and leads the US Insurance Delivery Practice. The majority of his career has been spent as a management consultant for Retirement, Life and Annuities companies leading large and complex programs including policy administration systems implementations, book of business migration/conversion projects, large scale capability transformations, and agile transformations.
Kristine Miller is a principal consultant with Capco. She has over 20 years of experience in Financial Services designing and implementing innovative and results driven solutions that accelerate outcomes to complex challenges.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.