States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

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Alex Burgess

Alex is the Principal Industry Strategist at Hi Marley. He drives innovative use cases for omnichannel customer conversations across the insurance lifecycle. Before Hi Marley, Alex spent a decade with Liberty Mutual, where he was VP of Customer Experience. There, he led experience design, retention tactics, and omnichannel service strategy for the company's direct and independent agent channels. Alex also spent six years in Management Consulting, where he worked with companies across the globe on customer loyalty and growth strategy.

Ingo Weinem

Ingo Weinem leads EPAM's European insurance vertical, partnering with top clients to enhance and expand their businesses.

With more than 35 years of experience in the financial services sector and the insurance industry, Mr. Weinem's expertise spans software engineering, financial planning, omnichannel digitalization and transformation strategies, innovation and organizational change management.

Throughout his professional career, he has held various management positions in the banking, financial markets and insurance industry for software solution providers, including Luxoft, Pactera, Capgemini, Cognizant and IBM.

Stephen Holdstock is the Chief Technology Officer of EMEA Insurance at EPAM Systems, where he leads the technological direction for EPAM's insurance clients across the region, helping them achieve strategic value through the integration of business, technology and data.

With more than 20 years of industry experience, Mr. Holdstock brings deep expertise in IT leadership, change management and large-scale transformation programs. His career spans roles in large-scale engineering at Motorola, tier-one consulting at Accenture and strategic leadership at global property and casualty (P&C) carriers, including a significant tenure as CTO at Lloyd's of London.

At EPAM, Mr. Holdstock is focused on building out the insurance practice, continuing to drive transformative outcomes for clients across the insurance industry.

The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.