U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Robert Cruz has been with Smarsh for over ten years as the Vice President of Regulatory and Information Governance. His primary objective is to help Smarsh customers stay informed of regulatory developments and deploy best practices in the use of digital communications technology. Robert is a recognized author, speaker, and subject matter expert in the area of digital communications compliance and brings over two decades of leadership in the governance, risk, and compliance market.
Chris Arnold is the Vice President of Contact Center Strategy at ASAPP, where he partners with leading insurance carriers to modernize claims, billing, and customer service operations with AI. With more than 15 years of experience in customer experience transformation and contact center innovation, he specializes in helping enterprises operationalize AI to drive measurable efficiency and improve policyholder satisfaction.
Jenny Small is a partner at Otteson Shapiro, advising banks and fintechs on regulatory compliance and bank transactions. She spent over a decade at the OCC, having served as legal counsel to examiners supervising community, midsize, credit card, technology service providers, trust and novel banks; a licensing analyst on large bank transactions; and a payment policy analyst.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.