U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Mark S. Bonta is the Executive Director of the Recovery Jobs Foundation, an initiative focused on reintegrating individuals in recovery into the workforce. With 20 years of experience as a Plant Director and 6 years of experience as a recovery-friendly employer, he pioneered the New Hampshire Recovery Friendly Workplace Initiative (NH-RFWI) as one of the first RFW's in the nation. Mark's leadership has been recognized with several awards, including the 2022 Littleton Area Chamber of Commerce Citizen of the Year Award and the 2023 White Mountains Community College President's Community Partner Award. Currently formalizing the Recovery Jobs Foundation, he also serves on the NH-RFWI Advisory Council, and as Secretary of the Florida Recovery-Friendly Workplace Coalition.
Alex Konanykhin is the co-founder and CEO of Unicoin.
Monica S. Simon is head of legal at Forge Global and has over 15 years of experience as a securities lawyer in both public and private markets.
Before joining Forge, she was deputy general counsel at Carta, and general counsel for Carta's broker-dealer entity. Prior to that, Simon was an attorney with Willkie Farr, where she advised registered broker-dealers and investment advisors, and assistant general counsel at Goldman Sachs, where she covered equities sales and trading and was counsel for the Goldman Alternative Trading System.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.