U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Joey Pizzolato is a reporter at American Banker, covering all things payments, including stablecoins, agentic AI, buy now, pay later and earned wage access. He is based in New York.
Prior to reporting on payments, Joey spent nearly six years covering auto finance as the editor of Auto Finance News, and has also covered the mortgage and housing industry, bank technology and marketing, state and federal regulation, fraud and the asset-backed securities market.
His work has earned him two Azbee Awards: One for investigative journalism examining the ease at which bad actors can obtain fraudulent employment verification needed to finance automobiles on social networks such as Facebook and Instagram; and one for enterprise news reporting that examined the lasting effects of inflation and COVID-19 pandemic on the subprime auto finance industry. In 2023, he was named a Goldschmidt FRED Fellow by the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing.
Joey holds a Master of Fine Arts from the Naslund-Mann Graduate School of Writing at Spalding University and a Bachelor of Arts degree from DePaul University.
Email Joey at joey.pizzolato@americanbanker.com. Reach him on Signal at @joeypizzolato.25
Tunua Thrash-Ntuk is president and CEO of The Center by Lendistry, a nonprofit organization dedicated to closing the racial wealth gap by anchoring small businesses and the communities where they do business.
John Alchemy, M.D., is founder and CEO of Rate-Fast.
He has been practicing occupational and family medicine since 1997 and is a diplomate of the American Board of Family Practice. Dr. Alchemy has performed and reviewed over 10,000 cases (and counting).
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.