States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

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Matteo Carbone

Founder and Director of the IoT Insurance Observatory, and Global Ambassador of the Italian InsurTech Association.

Internationally recognized as an insurance industry strategist and a world-renowned authority on InsurTech, he has worked in 20 different international insurance markets. Co-author of a book, 18 papers and more than 100 thought-leadership articles on insurance innovation. He has been invited to speak at more than 200 events across the world.

Accomplished business leader who co-founded Archimede, a SPAC that raised €47M and acquired the Italian insurance carrier Net Insurance in 2018. As board member and chairperson of the innovation advisory board, played a key role in the success of the listed combined entity. This journey resulted in Poste Italiane's acquisition of Net Insurance in May 2023, generating a 120% return for SPAC investors.

Before creating Observatory and co-founding Archimede, he spent 11 years in Bain & Company. He received his Business Administration degree from Bocconi University, also executive program certificates in IoT and data monetization from the MIT Sloan School of Management.

Rachel Lin is a co-founder and CEO of SynFutures, a decentralized derivatives trading platform. She previously worked in the global markets division at Deutsche Bank, where she specialized in derivatives, and is also a founding partner of Matrixport, one of Asia's largest crypto neobanks.

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The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.