U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Bob Kerr, EA, is principal of Kerr Consulting LLC, where he consults with individual firms on tax administration issues. He started his career by spending a dozen years at IRS, mostly in compliance research, and then provided IRS oversight as professional staff on the Senate Finance Committee and served in senior roles, including as chief advocate and IRS/policy spokesman, at the National Association of Enrolled Agents. Follow him on X at @BSG_BobKerr.
Eric Spacek has more than 15 years of insurance risk control experience and joined Church Mutual in January 2020 as Risk Control program manager. He was promoted to his current role in January 2022.
Spacek earned a bachelor's degree in English from Eastern University in St. David's, Pennsylvania, and his juris doctor degree from American University in Washington, D.C.
Spacek earned the Associate in Risk Management (ARM) designation. He has also received the Cambridge Certificate in Risk Management for Churches and Schools.
Spacek serves on the board of directors of the Iowa Prayer Breakfast Committee and on the board of directors for the Friends of Youth Justice Initiative in West Des Moines, Iowa.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.