States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
Lisa Walsh, Senior Vice President, Investments at LJW Wealth Management of Raymond James

Lisa Walsh is the senior vice president, investments, LJW Wealth Management of Raymond James.

For nearly 30 years, she has practiced a holistic approach to personalized planning that addresses the financial complexities inherent in the lives of high net worth individuals and families. She is based in Buffalo, New York.

Wendy Houser

Wendy Houser is the Chief Wholesale Officer for Markel Specialty, Chair of the Insurance Industry Charitable Foundation (IICF) Board of Governors, and past Chair of the IICF Southeast Division Board of Directors. Houser spent 10 years as a wholesale broker before joining Markel. She was promoted to Regional President in 2014, then served as Chief Territory Officer for the West. She is also a veteran of the U.S. Navy and Navy Reserves.

Matthew Leaney is the chief revenue officer at Silent Eight.

The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.