U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Noah Gold is the general counsel and head of public policy of Prism Data, a cash flow underwriting infrastructure and analytics platform. Prior to joining Prism, he was the general counsel of Petal, a fintech credit card company. Before that, he was the assistant general counsel of a leading e-commerce software platform, and prior to that Noah previously practiced law at Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton & Garrison LLP.
Jason Rosen is founder and CEO of Prism Data, a cash flow underwriting infrastructure and analytics platform. Prior to founding Prism, Jason was co-founder and CEO of Petal, a fintech credit card company. Jason served on the Consumer Advisory Board of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, sat on the Small Business Regulatory Enforcement Fairness Act panel for the Open Banking rulemaking, and is a member of the OCC's Project REACh. Jason previously practiced law at Sullivan & Cromwell and Gunderson Dettmer, where he represented financial institutions, technology companies and venture capitalists. Jason holds a JD from Harvard Law School.
Dev Nag is the founder and CEO of QueryPal. He was previously on the founding team at GLMX, one of the largest electronic securities trading platforms in the money markets. He was also CTO and founder at Wavefront (acquired by VMware) and a senior engineer at Google, where he helped develop the back end for all financial processing of Google ad revenue. He previously served as the manager of business operations strategy at PayPal. He also launched eBay's private-label credit line in association with GE Financial. Dev received a dual-degree B.S. in mathematics and B.A. in psychology from Stanford.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.