U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Matthew Posner is Clean Energy Advisor to City First Enterprises and Principal at Court Street Group.
Dawn Wagenaar is a brand strategist and principal of Ingenuity Marketing Group, LLC, serving accounting firms across the U.S. Since 1992, Ingenuity Marketing has been helping CPAs, attorneys, financial service professionals, engineers, consultants and other professionals develop their practices. Wagenaar has worked in professional service marketing since 1993 when she began coordinating marketing programs for a regional office of a large national insurance and financial services company. Since then she has directed the marketing efforts of a small local and a large regional CPA firm. Wagenaar has a Bachelor of Arts degree from Augsburg College in Minneapolis as well as a Master of Arts in Educational Leadership from the University of St. Thomas in St. Paul, Minnesota. She is a member of the Edina Chamber of Commerce, member of the Legal Marketing Association, past chair of the AAM Conference Committee of the Association for Accounting Marketing, member-at-large for AAM National Board of Directors, and president for AAM Minnesota. Reach her at dawn@ingenuitymarketing.com.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.