U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
J.D. Crouch is the CEO and president of the United Service Organizations, a private nonprofit organization dedicated to strengthening America's military service members by keeping them connected to family, home and country throughout their service to the nation.
Maria Tsennykh, Ph.D., is a principal at CLA in New York. She has more than 17 years of experience in valuation, forensics, litigation, investigations and audit, including serving as an expert witness and 11 years at a Big Four firm. In addition, having worked on two continents, she combines her economic, accounting, corporate finance, valuation and investigation backgrounds to advise clients on a variety of complex circumstances in the U.S. and internationally. Her experience includes damages analysis, assessment of corporate governance practices and internal controls, business and intangible assets valuation, and international arbitration advisory. She also regularly directs large-scale financial investigative assignments including forensic accounting investigations, financial fraud investigations, financial reporting investigations, white-collar crime investigations, corporate governance investigations and investigations involving the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA).
Alejandro M. Agenjo is a Madrid-born engineer, psychologist, and entrepreneur whose passion is understanding people and improving communities and their systems. He was named one of the top social entrepreneurs in 2019 for his ed-tech startup seeking to detect students' strengths and learning styles to improve learning and future opportunities. Today, he's the proud co-founder and CEO of Erudit, an AI SaaS empowering executives with real-time workforce insights to drive better decisions and to build healthier work communities.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.