U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Kevin Sweeney is a former federal tax prosecutor. He is currently a shareholder in the Philadelphia Office of Chamberlain Hrdlicka, where he focuses on IRS audits, civil and criminal tax litigation, white-collar criminal defense, and corporate investigations. He may be reached at ksweeney@chamberlainlaw.com.
John Kirbo is a senior counsel in Chamberlain Hrdlicka's tax controversy practice in Atlanta. He has a background in business transactions, as well as both civil litigation and criminal defense, primarily in federal district court. He is skilled at solving complex problems for clients through litigation or other more creative means. He may be reached at john.kirbo@chamberlainlaw.com.
Tom Cullinan is a shareholder in Chamberlain Hrdlicka's Atlanta office. He works in the firm's tax controversy group, focusing on tax, tax controversy and litigation. Before joining the firm, he worked at the IRS, serving as the counselor to the IRS commissioner and then as the acting IRS chief of staff. As relevant here, while at IRS he co-led the creation of the Office of Promoter Investigation. He may be reached at tom.cullinan@chamberlainlaw.com.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.