U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Cole Dellinger is a tax manager in HCVT's Park City, Utah office.
Lucas White is president of The Fountain Trust Company in Covington, Ind., and chairman of the Independent Community Bankers of America.
Debbie Brackeen is the chief strategy & innovation officer at CSAA Group. She leads the organization in strategy, partnerships, innovation and venture investing. She has more than 25 years of experience and leadership at innovative high-tech companies, including Apple, Sun, HP, and eBay, and, most recently, served as the global head of innovation at Citigroup. She has served as an adviser to the Astia Technology Committee since 2008, and was an adviser on the corporate board of the National Venture Capital Association. Ms. Brackeen earned a degree in American Studies from Stanford University and has completed executive programs at the Northwestern Kellogg School of Management, INSEAD and the Stanford Graduate School of Business.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.