U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Bola Akinsanya is the founder of Unlevered, a residential cost segregation and asset-depreciation platform for CPAs and real estate investors. She was previously Global Director of revenue and vetting systems at Airbnb.
Diwas KC is a professor at Emory University's Goizueta Business School, where his research focuses on healthcare delivery and pricing. He has been analyzing CMS-mandated hospital pricing data to build procedure-level benchmarks for the Georgia commercial market. Data source for article: CMS-mandated hospital machine-readable files (2026), Georgia hospitals, commercial payer rates. Facility fees only — excludes physician and anesthesia fees.
Larry Cao, CFA, is Senior Market Intelligence Analyst, AI, at American Banker, where he focuses on the adoptions of artificial intelligence across banking and financial services.
Larry has more than two decades of experience in investment research and financial services, with a particular focus on AS adoption, data-driven investment processes, and the future of finance. He previously served as a senior research leader at CFA Institute, where he led and authored research on AI, big data, fintech, investment management, and evolving skillsets in the financial industry. He is the editor of Handbook of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data Applications in Investments and author of research on AI adoption and T-shaped teams.
Larry's research and commentary have been cited by regulators and industry organizations globally, and featured in major media outlets including Bloomberg, the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, and Reuters. Earlier in his career, he held roles at Morningstar/Ibbotson Associates, Munder Capital Management, and McKinsey & Company.
Larry holds an MBA in finance from the University of Notre Dame.
Some of Larry's publications include:
Books and reports
Ten Structural Shifts in AI Adoption: Evidence, Frameworks, and Emerging Frontiers (2018 -2025) - Handbook of Artificial Intelligence and Big Data in Investments
- T-Shaped Teams
- AI Pioneers in Investment Management
- Multi-Asset Strategies: The Future of Investment Management
Interviews/presentations (video)
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.