U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Isabella Aldrete is a summer reporter at Employee Benefit News. She is currently a senior at Barnard College and a former deputy editor at the Columbia Daily Spectator.
Jonathan Schiff, Ph.D, is a professor of accounting at Fairleigh Dickinson University in Teaneck, N.J. He is the author of over 70 articles and research studies on accounting, controls, performance management, CFO practice development, and financial and cost management. He also served as visiting professor of accounting at Columbia University's School of Business and taught in their MBA and executive MBA programs, and was the founder, in 1995, of the Finance Development & Training Institute (www.fdti.org) a 10-member company alliance, chaired by Dell Technologies. He also established several other best practices sharing alliances including the Activity-Based Costing Implementation Group, the Europe-Finance Leadership Institute, the Transit-Finance Learning Exchange and the China Finance Institute. He has served as chairman of a Nasdaq-listed company audit committee and is frequently quoted in the national business media, including Business Week, The Washington Post, USA Today and The New York Times. Schiff received his Ph.D. from New York University. Before completing his master's degree in accounting at NYU, he worked as a staff auditor with Price Waterhouse.
Lars Boeing is a Vice President in Capgemini Invent's Insurance Practice and leads Capgemini's global Future of Claims offering. He has been working for 20+ years in consulting and industry roles, primarily focused on strategy development, customer experience design, efficiency improvement, and business model (re)design.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.