U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Before coming to FormFree, Dr. Michael Covington was co-founder and former associate director of the Institute for Artificial Intelligence at The University of Georgia.
Neal Pandozzi is a partner with the law firm Bowditch & Dewey, LLP in Boston, Massachusetts. He has over two decades of public finance experience. He is licensed to practice law in Massachusetts and Rhode Island.
Aaron J. Harding is Head of Financial Wellness for Morgan Stanley at Work. In this role, he is responsible for developing and implementing human and tech-powered financial coaching capabilities to support and improve the financial well-being of participants across the Morgan Stanley At Work ecosystem.
Prior to joining Morgan Stanley, Aaron led PwC's Financial Education and Wellness team, providing strategic leadership for the design, development, and delivery of employee-focused financial well-being programs, including the assessments, digital tools and thought leadership to support them.
Aaron earned his MBA cum laude from the F.W. Olin Graduate School of Business at Babson College where he was an Olin Fellow, and a B.A. Cum Laude in Psychology from the University of Massachusetts, Boston.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.