U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Steve is a partner in PwC's Risk Modeling Services practice. He leads PwC's US Climate Risk Modeling team and has more than 24 years of experience in actuarial risk and financial modeling. Steve's team is comprised of actuaries, financial analysts, PhD climate scientists, data scientists, geospatial engineers, and other climate risk specialists. His approach blends climate science with geospatial analysis and financial modeling to help clients identify, measure, and manage climate risk exposure. Projects include climate change risk assessments and quantification for both physical and transition risk, emissions optimization, and other financial and risk modeling projects. Steve has a degree in Mathematics from Saint Joseph's University in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. He is a fellow of the Society of Actuaries and a Chartered Enterprise Risk Analyst.
Osho Jha is a co-founder of Arbol currently serving as its Chief Data Scientist. He is also a founding partner of dClimate, the first decentralized climate information ecosystem. As Chief Data Scientist at Arbol, he oversees the development of data-driven parametric products and climate risk solutions. Osho comes to Arbol with over a decade of experience as a product-focused data scientist. His experience ranges from cutting edge NLP research for DARPA resulting in a speech-to-speech translation system deployed by the U.S. military to using exhaust data for trading global equities.
Kiran Kumar Boosam is the head of Global Insurance Strategy & Portfolio at Capgemini. In his current role, he is responsible for enabling the top-line growth of Capgemini's Insurance business. He has more than 25 years of experience in P&C and Life Insurance. Kiran is a graduate in Electrical & Electronics Engineering from Andhra University.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.