U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Sathish Kumar Manimuthu serves as the CTO at NeuralMetrics, an insurtech offering AI-powered risk-assessment intelligence for P&C carriers, brokers, and agents. With experience in launching innovative technology and products for startups and Fortune 500 companies, Sathish is responsible for the company's suite of data-delivery engines and AI models.
Ronen Assia is a Managing Partner at Team8.
Heather Sullivan is the North American Strategy lead for Accenture's Insurance practice, where she spends her time driving new business endeavors on behalf of carriers, brokers, MGAs, private equity organizations and start-ups. She helps organizations understand agency needs, wants, desires, motivators and, ultimately, how to achieve market success. Heather holds a bachelor's degree from University of Southern California. Heather serves several global roles within Accenture, including as the executive sponsor for Accenture's Insurance Strategy diversity and inclusion efforts. Heather resides in Chicago with her husband, daughter and son, and very lively Portuguese Water Dog.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.