U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Bill joined Plymouth Rock in 2016 and is in charge of our property insurance business and reinsurance programs. Bill has over 30 years of experience in the insurance industry. Bill was formerly President of Bankers Insurance, winning a Celent Model Insurer award in 2014 for simplifying homeowners insurance shopping. He also founded a startup with a new approach to flood insurance and has held senior positions at Farmers Insurance, Progressive and Travelers. Bill is a graduate of Stanford University, with a degree in Survey Data Research. He is a frequent speaker and author on insurance issues and has served on the Institute for Business and Home Safety and other safety organizations. He is an active board member of nonprofits that combat poverty and aid those with intellectual and developmental disabilities. He is an avid sailor, skier and trombone player.
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Evan Daniels serves on the advisory board of Monitaur, an AI/ML governance software company committed to working with the insurance industry and regulators towards the responsible and effective integration of AI/ML. Formerly Director of the Arizona Department of Insurance and Financial Institutions and served as the 2022 Co-Vice Chair of the NAIC Committee on Innovation, Cybersecurity and Technology, which oversees the NAIC's Big Data and Artificial Intelligence workstreams, Evan also is Counsel at Mitchell Sandler LLC, a boutique financial services law firm, where he advises insurance companies, insurtechs, fintechs, and financial institutions on regulatory matters. For more information on Monitaur, please visit www.monitaur.ai, and follow the company on LinkedIn.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.