U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Melissa Bartlett is senior vice president of health policy, The ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC), leading the development of ERIC's health policy and advocacy for its legislative and regulatory priorities at the federal, state and local levels.
Carin Giuliante is the chair and chief executive officer of Deloitte Tax LLP.
David Tobias serves as the chief product officer at Nearmap. Previously, he co-founded Betterview, the leading Property Intelligence Platform for P&C insurers, which was acquired by Nearmap in December 2023. David plays a pivotal role in driving the market strategy for Nearmap, enabling users to effectively identify and mitigate risk, enhance operational efficiency, and build a more transparent customer experience. Before founding Betterview, David was instrumental in scaling Research Specialist Incorporated, an insurance loss control company. Under his leadership, the company expanded to conduct over 30,000 inspections annually with a network of more than 500 inspectors across the United States. Research Specialist Incorporated was later acquired by Alpine Intel. A veteran of the insurance and property intelligence industry, Tobias is focused on finding actionable, usable solutions to complex geospatial challenges.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.