U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Dr. Donald Mullineaux is the DuPont endowed chair in banking and financial services emeritus in the Gatton School of Business and Economics at the University of Kentucky. He served on the board of directors at the Federal Home Loan Bank of Cincinnati from 2011 to 2023, including six years as chair.
Jody Bhagat is President of Americas at Personetics, a global leader in data-driven personalization and customer engagement for financial institutions. In this capacity, he is responsible for driving customer impact and establishing market leadership with the company's Self-Driving Finance proposition. Personetics delivers personalized insights, advice, and automated programs to help customers improve their financial well-being. Previously, he was a Partner at McKinsey, where he helped financial institutions execute digital transformation programs to drive organic growth. Jody has also held digital leadership roles at leading AI-driven fintechs and North American Banks, including U.S. Bank, Wells Fargo, Providian, and Citizens Bank.
Yaniv Bertele, co-founder and CEO of VESTTOO, is an experienced strategist and business development and investment executive.
Before the establishment of Vesttoo, Yaniv served as VP Business Development in a number of global companies, including Consumer Physics, Goji, CTG Holdings and Poseidon Diving Systems; In addition, while leading the corporate VC of Mekorot, Israel's National Water Company, he personally led 16 different equity investments in various startups, including the successful exit of Bacsoft. Acquired by Sun Corporation (TYO: 6736). Yaniv holds a Master's degrees in Physics and Mathematics and is an active reserve officer at an IDF Elite Unit.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.