U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Annie Donovan was director of the U.S. Department of the Treasury's CDFI Fund from 2014 to 2018. She is currently president and CEO of Raza Development Fund, a certified CDFI. Twitter: @ADonovanRDF.
Cody Dong leads MSCI's ESG and climate research for the insurance sector. He also sits on the committee that oversees MSCI ESG Ratings' methodology, quality and model integrity. Prior to joining MSCI, Cody was a strategy and business-development analyst at Alcoa. He also has experience as a sell-side analyst covering Chinese insurance and banking equities. Cody holds a bachelor's degree in business management from Ohio State University and a master's in finance from University of Cincinnati. He is a CFA® Charterholder and holds the designation of Financial Risk Manager (FRM).
Arne Philipp Klug is MSCI's biodiversity research director, overseeing thematic research on biodiversity and natural capital. He engages with investors and key stakeholders to help clients set and prioritize their investment objectives for biodiversity. Arne previously led MSCI'S ESG research on the transportation sector. Prior to joining MSCI, he worked as an ESG analyst and account manager at Sustainalytics in Frankfurt and Toronto. Arne holds a master's degree in communications science, political economics and Hispanic studies from the University of Münster in Germany.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.