U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Jim Besaw is principal and chief investment officer for GenTrust, responsible for oversight, selection and management of all investment-related activity across the firm's strategies and portfolios, as well as the development of all new investment strategies at GenTrust. He co-founded GenTrust in 2011.
James Gelfand is president of the ERISA Industry Committee (ERIC), a nonprofit, Washington, D.C.-based organization that represents the largest employers in the U.S.
Jason Rauhe, CPA, leads McGuire Sponsel's global business services practice and is responsible for guiding clients and adding depth in all areas of the firm's international tax consulting services. Rauhe's extensive client and industry expertise has led him to be a sought-after published technical contributor and speaker across international tax topics around the country. Rauhe previously served as director of international tax at a Top 100 CPA Firm, where he was responsible for the firm's international tax division and served as the firm's international tax lead for major industry alliance networks. He also worked previously as vice president of global taxes at a large automotive supplier, where he managed the global tax function for the company's $7 billion business.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.