U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Andrew Hersh is the CEO at Sigma7, a global risk information and services platform. He is an expert in the fields of risk management and national security and has contributed to the evolution of risk management in corporations and governments. Andrew has served as a Senior Fellow at Auburn's McCrary Institute and George Washington University's Center for Cyber and Homeland Security. He has served as a Member of the Infrastructure Advisory Committee for the State of New Jersey Office of Homeland Security & Preparedness and is a Member of the Cyber & Technology Council at Business Executives for National Security.
Beth Robertson is a Managing Director of Keynova Group, a principal competitive intelligence source for digital financial services firms that publishes semi-annual Online and Mobile Insurance Scorecards. With more than 30 years of experience, Beth has held leadership roles as a consultant and as a senior-level industry analyst with expertise in digital channels, payments and insurance.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.