States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

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Nicole Stelter, Ph.D., is the director of Behavioral Health at Blue Shield of California, a nonprofit health plan with more than $22 billion in annual revenue serving 4.7 million members in the state's commercial, individual, and government markets.

Stelter plays a key role in implementing Blue Shield's Behavioral Health Reimagined strategy. She is also responsible for providing behavioral health and market/provider expertise across Blue Shield of California's behavioral health initiatives, with a focus on commercial lines of business. 

Stelter has more than 30 years of behavioral health experience, most recently serving as Kaiser Permanente's director of National Strategic Customer Engagement, Specialty Consulting for Mental Health, and Health Equity. In this role, she led the company's total workforce health portfolio, including providing internal and external consultation and product development for mental health, occupational health, wellness, Employee Assistance Programs (EAP), and disability management services.

Stelter holds a bachelor's degree in Psychology and a master's degree in Counseling Psychology from California State University-Dominguez Hills and she earned a PhD degree from Capella University in Minneapolis.

Stelter is a licensed marriage and family therapist, a clinical trauma professional, and holds certifications in community/organizational disaster mental health. Her clinical focus has been with the first-responder community (police and fire), and she served as a behavioral health officer in the California Army National Guard (State Guard/Reserves) from 2010 to 2015.

The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.