States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

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James Jack is the Executive Director and Head of the Business Owners Client Segment at UBS.

James Jack is the Executive Director and Head of the Business Owners Client Segment at UBS.

Aaron Lindstrom is the Regional Head of Transformation and Digital Partnerships for Allianz Trade in Americas, the world's largest and oldest provider of trade credit insurance. In his current role, Lindstrom is responsible for the execution of Allianz Trades' ambitious strategy to fundamentally transform the company for success in the digital era. He also drives the Region's digital partnerships by actively facilitating current and new partnership opportunities, and evolving current product offerings to serve market needs. In addition to the day-to-day responsibilities of his role, Lindstrom serves as a founding member for Allianz Trade's American Diversity & Inclusion Committee.

Lindstrom has 10 years of experience in the insurance industry. He joined Allianz Trade in 2012, serving as Sales Agent, then later Senior Sales Agent. Prior to joining the organization, he held positions with Enterprise Fleet Management and Enterprise Rent-A-Car.

Lindstrom has vast experience speaking at both regional and national events for organizations such as, The Risk Management Association, The National Association of Credit Managers, Washington Business Week, and The Associated Builders and Contractors.  He is active in several regional trade organizations and frequently networks with startups and fintechs to stay up-to-date on the innovation of the trade credit insurance industry.

In his spare time, Lindstrom enjoys volunteering with organizations like Washington Trails Association and North Helpline. In the past, he has served on the boards of numerous non-profit organizations. When not hard at work for Allianz Trade or volunteering, Lindstrom enjoys traveling, camping, hiking and snow skiing.

Paul Williams is VP of Business Development at HONK Technologies, an on-demand automotive mobility services company. He has previously held a number of senior positions in vehicle salvage and recycling companies, including Newell Recycling Southeast, Aviva and Bluecycle.

The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.