U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Joshua Ronen is a professor of accounting at New York University Stern School of Business and co-editor of the "Journal of Law, Finance, and Accounting." Professor Ronen teaches courses in managerial accounting, financial accounting, advanced topics in financial accounting, and financial statements analysis. Ronen has been with NYU Stern for nearly 45 years. His primary research areas include capital markets, disclosure, earning management, economic impact of accounting rules and regulations, financial reporting, legal liability of firms, transfer pricing, agency theory, corporate governance, and fair valuation. Ronen has written numerous books including "Accounting and Financial Globalization," "Off-Balance Sheet Activities," "Entrepreneurship," "Smoothing Income Numbers: Objectives, Means and Implications," and "Earnings Management." He has been published in many academic journals including and publications including The New York Times, The Accounting Review, Journal of Accounting Research, Journal of Accounting, Auditing and Finance, Abacus, Management Science, Journal of Public Economics, Journal of Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, Stanford Journal of Law, Business, and Finance, and Journal of Financial Markets. In addition to his work at NYU Stern, Ronen has lectured at University of Canterbury, Tel-Aviv University, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, National University of Mexico, University of Toronto, University of Chicago, Hebrew University, and London School of Economics among many others. He has also been a consultant for numerous organizations, including especially law firms as expert witness in the area of securities litigation. His suggestions for reform in the accounting profession have received critical acclaim by legislators and in the media. Ronen received his Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Accounting at Hebrew University in Israel, and his Doctor of Philosophy from Stanford University. Professor Ronen is also a licensed CPA in Israel.
David Silberman is senior advisor at the Financial Health Network and former associate director, research, markets and regulations at the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
David Stone is Founder and CEO of RetireOne, an independent platform for fee-based insurance solutions.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.