U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Lamine Zarrad is the founder and CEO of StellarFi, a credit builder that reports unlimited bill payments to the three major credit bureaus. Since 2008, Lamine has worked in various financial services roles, launching his career with Merrill Lynch and later transitioning to the public sector as a National Banker Examiner at the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. Prior to Stellar, Lamine founded FinTechs Tokken and Joust. The latter was acquired by ZenBusiness where Lamine led the product organization through two fund raises, minting the company as one of the few Austin Unicorns. At StellarFi, Lamine and his team are on a mission to disrupt the U.S. poverty cycle and provide credit access to 132 million Americans with low or no credit. Lamine has been awarded a Bachelors in Business Administration in International Business and Russian Studies from the University of Texas at Arlington and a Masters of Public Affairs degree with a focus on Policy Analysis/Public Finance from the University of Texas at Austin. Lamine was born in the former Soviet Republic of Azerbaijan and came to the United States as a refugee prior to serving in the Marine Corps. Lamine speaks four languages and resides in Austin, Texas with his family.
David Braun is founder and CEO of Capstone Strategic, an M&A strategic consulting firm that has successfully facilitated over $1 billion of client transactions in over 30 countries across more than 100 industries. He is the author of Successful Acquisitions: A Proven Plan for Strategic Growth. He is reachable at dbraun@capstonestrategic.com and on Twitter @CapstoneStrat.
Olivia Kelman is a partner at K&L Gates
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.