U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
William Holder serves as dean of the USC Leventhal School of Accounting, and holds the Alan Casden Dean’s Chair of Accountancy. Prior to his current post, he was the Ernst & Young Professor of Accounting and director of the SEC and Financial Reporting Institute in the Marshall School of Business at the University of Southern California. Dean Holder has published extensively on the subjects of financial accounting and reporting and auditing. He has received numerous awards during his career, including being twice named as one of the “Top 100 People” in the accounting profession and receiving the AICPA Gold Medal for Distinguished Service, the highest honor awarded by that organization. He has served on a number of governance and standard setting authorities including the Accounting Standards Executive Committee of the AICPA and the Governmental Accounting Standards Board. During congressional hearings leading to passage of the Sarbanes/Oxley Act, he provided invited testimony about financial reporting, auditing and corporate governance.
Udi Hoitash is an accounting professor at Northeastern University in Boston.
Jen Farrell is director of agent and customer research at Liberty Mutual and Safeco Insurance, supporting independent agent distribution and product development. In her role, she conducts primary research and interprets industry trends to ensure Liberty Mutual and Safeco take a data-driven approach to the agent and customer experience. Jen brings nearly 15 years of experience in research and digital analytics, previously working with some of the world’s largest brands to uncover marketing insights and answer critical business questions. When she’s not studying consumers, independent agents, or the insurance industry, she can be found hiking through the woods in New England.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.