U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Dan Rubin is the founder and CEO of YELO Funding, a fintech company that offers income-contingent financing to U.S. college students of all backgrounds. Mr. Rubin has 25 years of principal investing, investment banking, restructuring and operational experience, including roles as co-founding partner of YAD Capital, a private credit investment firm, private equity real estate investor at Halpern Real Estate Ventures and JEN Partners, investment banker at Lehman Brothers and turnaround consultant at Deloitte. He holds an MBA from NYU Stern School of Business.
Dan Schuleman is the co-founder and CEO of Qumis, a lawyer-built, AI-powered insurtech transforming how insurance professionals read and interpret policies. Before founding Qumis, Dan was Associate General Counsel at Kin Insurance, where he helped scale the company and navigate complex regulatory environments. He previously practiced insurance coverage law at Am Law 200 firms, advising insurers and policyholders on high-stakes commercial claims. Dan holds a J.D. from the University of Illinois College of Law and a B.A. with honors from Northwestern University.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.