U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Jamie Yoder is the President and General Manager of Sapiens North America, a leading global provider of software solutions and services for all sectors of insurance. He is responsible for the North America business end-to-end, driving all business fundamentals from strategy to product development to delivery; competency centers & professional services; business development including sales, sales support, marketing and partners; customer management and customer care activities; and managing daily operations.
Rob Chrane is the CEO of Down Payment Resource
Molly Boesel holds the position of principal, economist in the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. She is responsible for analyzing and forecasting housing and mortgage market trends. She has a depth of expertise in mortgage market analysis, model development and risk analysis in the housing finance industry.
Boesel previously worked at both Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. While at Fannie Mae she provided Fannie Mae’s official monthly forecast for the economy, housing market, and mortgage market stocks and flows, and provided analyses on trends in the mortgage market, including characteristics of borrowers, homeowners, and mortgage products. She earned her bachelor’s degree in economics from James Madison University and her master’s degree in consumer economics and housing from Cornell University.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.