U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Archana Pradhan holds the position of principal, economist as part of the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. With years of experience in housing economics, applied econometrics and spatial analysis, she is responsible for analyzing housing and mortgage markets.
Prior to joining CoreLogic, she was program manager and senior research analyst at the National Community Reinvestment Coalition. She earned her doctorate in natural resource economics from West Virginia University.
Thom holds the position of professional, economist in the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. He is responsible for analyzing housing markets and home price trends. He has an extensive background in urban and real estate economics and applied econometrics.
Before joining CoreLogic, he held positions at the University of Virginia, Georgia Tech, and Harvard University. He earned his bachelor’s degree in economics, statistics and history at the University of Auckland, his master’s degree in economics from Tufts University and his doctorate in urban planning and development from the University of Southern California.
Yanling Mayer holds the position of principal, economist in the Office of the Chief Economist at CoreLogic. She conducts analysis of housing and mortgage markets. A financial economist by training, Mayer has a great depth of professional experience in economic and market research.
Prior to joining CoreLogic, she was director of research with FNC, Inc., a mortgage technology company and industry leading provider of appraisal workflow and collateral valuation platforms, where she was responsible for housing analysis and collateral-focused analytics research. She earned her bachelor’s degree in finance from Shanghai University of Economics and Finance, her master’s degree in economics from the University of Mississippi and her doctorate in finance from the University of Mississippi.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.