U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Brian Fritzsche is assistant vice president and regulatory counsel at the Consumer Bankers Association.
Sandee Perfetto is senior personal lines coverage director for Verisk’s Underwriting Solutions. Perfetto leads a team of personal lines and farm insurance professionals in using customer feedback, market knowledge, and business intelligence to drive the creation of new coverage products, and to maintain and enhance Underwriting Solutions existing programs. Over the years, Perfetto has helped develop a number of new personal lines products, and currently leads the personal lines development of insurance solutions for the sharing economy, millennials, autonomous vehicles, cyber and cannabis. Perfetto began her career at Verisk in the personal lines division. She graduated with a bachelor of science degree in insurance and finance from the University of Hartford and earned a master of science degree in education from Queens College. Sandee can be reached at Sandee.Perfetto@verisk.com.
John McDonough is Head of US Wealth Management Intermediaries Distribution at Invesco. He was previously the head of OppenheimerFunds’ Distribution and Marketing Teams, including Digital Distribution and Innovation.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.