States see $31B of taxes disappear due to COVID recession

Revenue dropped 6 percent as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.

The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.

CORONAVIRUS IMPACT: ADDITIONAL COVERAGE
Isabelle Santenac

Isabelle leads a team of over 12,000 industry professionals committed to helping insurers transform and reshape their business models through EY audit, business consulting, tax and corporate finance services. She’s committed to bringing the support and confidence of the firm to help businesses thrive in the new transformative age.

She has over 30 years of experience working with large financial services organizations. Previously, she held the role of Assurance Managing Partner for EY EMEIA Financial Services and before that, held the role of Global Assurance COO based in London. Since 2000, she has served as the lead partner for large international financial institutions headquartered in France or in Europe, whether audit or non-audit clients.

In addition to her work with EY, Isabelle is an active contributor to the discussion shaping the sustainability agenda in the insurance industry and is a board member of Positive Planet, a non-profit organization.

She received a master’s degree in Management from ESCP.

Laurén Robbins, Vice President and General Manager of Financial Services at ServiceNow

Laurén Robbins To is vice president and general manager of financial services at ServiceNow.

Mark Angelov is a partner and co-chair of Arent Fox’s Public Finance Group

The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.

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A boarded up Isabel Marant store closed in the SoHo neighborhood of New York.
Bloomberg News

The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.

Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.

“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.