U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Steven Simpson is the senior director and head of data science at Cornerstone Advisors.
Ryan Strauser is a Principal and Principal for Marketing in the Ares Wealth Management Solutions Group. Prior to joining Ares in 2021, Strauser was a senior vice president at Black Creek Group in the Product Management Group where he focused on product management, positioning and due diligence efforts for the firm’s offerings.
Previously, Strauser was a vice president at Jackson National where he focused on new product development, investment selection and product positioning. Before that, he held similar positions at OppenheimerFunds (now Invesco), Old Mutual Capital and Great-West (now Empower). Strauser holds a bachelor of business administration in marketing from Wartburg College and a master of business administration from the University of Colorado.
Alex Selarnick is an associate at Goodwin who advises insureds, insurers, and insurtechs, as well as their lenders and investors on a broad range of compliance, regulatory and transactional matters. Mr. Selarnick’s practice focuses on the intersection of insurance and technology, and he frequently works with clients on the legal and regulatory challenges associated with the use of technology in the insurance space. Mr. Selarnick also has extensive trade credit insurance experience, and he guides market leading supply chain and trade finance companies on the development and negotiation of international credit insurance programs.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.