U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Kim Lockett is Vice President of Customer Success and Services for Nvoicepay, a FLEETCOR company. She has more than 30 years of experience in payments, with a heavy focus on back-office operations and customer engagement. Prior to Nvoicepay, Kim held operations management and leadership positions with Comdata, Crestmark Bank, and Regions Bank.
Jonathan Matus is the CEO of Zendrive, a mission-driven company making roads safer with data and AI. Zendrive has the largest driving dataset in the world – more than 180 billion miles of data – and publishes industry-leading research on dangerous driving to raise awareness and improve driving behavior. In addition to measuring driving risk factors like speeding, distracted driving, and stop sign violations, the company partners with leading insurance providers and mobile carriers to provide safer driving solutions that save lives. Prior to Zendrive, Jonathan spent six years at Facebook and Google, where he worked on mobile and speech recognition projects. As one of Google’s early Android team members, he led the product marketing team in catapulting Android from industry newcomer to best-selling mobile platform within 18 months. He graduated cum laude from Harvard University with an Honors thesis on Artificial Intelligence.
Michael DeLong works for CFA’s Campaign for Fair Auto Insurance as the Research and Advocacy Associate. He conducts research on auto insurance and advocates for better, fairer, and more affordable practices that will protect consumers.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.