U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
James Katz is the founder and CEO of Humankind Investments. He is an experienced quantitative equity analyst and data scientist, having worked as an analyst at Vanguard prior to founding Humankind, and holds a PhD from Stanford University's Graduate School of Business.
For more than 20 years, Kenneth Saldanha has served the world’s leading P&C, life and reinsurance companies as a trusted advisor and strategy expert. He has helped clients improve their core operations, grow revenue and adopt innovative strategies, even in the most challenging market and economic conditions.
Kenneth now leads Accenture’s global insurance practice, guiding integration of digital, analytics, experience design and workforce solutions, and driving large-scale transformations that help clients reduce structural costs and grow revenue. With his deep understanding of insurance industry economics and market dynamics, he is uniquely positioned to help insurers navigate the challenges of both disruption and convergence with adjacent industries, such as travel, health and freight & logistics.
Kenneth previously led Accenture’s strategy practice in North America. He joined Accenture in 2013 from McKinsey, where he headed the global and North America practices for insurance claims and operations.
Kenneth earned a Ph.D. from the University of Chicago in 1998. He lives in Minneapolis with his wife and the youngest of their three children.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.