U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Jed Danbury is a vice president at Computop.
Ellen is a principal analyst serving financial services technology decision makers in roles such as CIOs and enterprise architects in the insurance and wealth, investment, and asset management industries. Her research focuses on the technology decisions that financial services firms are investing in, including core platforms modernization and replacement and the integration of emerging technologies with legacy systems to drive better digital experiences and improved operational efficiency.
Previous Work Experience
Prior to her current research coverage, Ellen spent eight years providing strategic analysis and advice to Forrester’s insurance digital business strategy clients, focusing on eBusiness strategies and best practices in digital and customer experience as well as adoption trends for property and casualty, life, group, and health insurers.
Ellen brings 30 years of experience in delivering technical and professional services to clients in a variety of industries and markets. She joined Forrester from the former ThruPoint, a New York-based professional services firm, where she was a principal consultant focusing on IT service business strategy to Global 100 clients in securities, banking, and insurance; telecommunications; and media and entertainment. Before joining ThruPoint, Ellen was a director and principal analyst for Gartner, following the infrastructure services market, including consulting, support, and managed services.
Ellen has presented on vertical-industry and role-based marketing in a variety of Forrester and client events. She has been cited in Forbes, Fortune, the New York Times, the Economist, the Wall Street Journal, Best’s Review, Carrier Management, Rough Notes, Digital Insurance, New Scientist, and American Banker.
Education
Ellen received a B.S. in economics from Southern New Hampshire University.
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The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.