U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Matt Battersby is VP and Chief Behavioral Scientist at Reinsurance Group of America, Incorporated (RGA). Based in RGA’s London (U.K.) office, he is responsible for the effective development and deployment of behavioral science-informed models to RGA and to its clients for use in underwriting, claims, risk management and customer engagement.
Daniel Schmid is vice president of sales for the Western U.S. with Trustmark Voluntary Benefits. He has more than 35 years of sales experience in the insurance industry.
A national policy leader with over 20 years of experience, Dr. Keita M. Franklin is the Chief Clinical Officer at Loyal Source Government Services– the nation’s leading healthcare solutions provider – and has consulted with many entities on issues related to workplace wellness. Prior to joining the Loyal Source team, Dr. Franklin was a senior executive at both the Department of Veteran Affairs (VA) and the Department of Defense (DoD), frequently representing the DoD and the VA during testimony in front of both chambers of Congress and advising the Office of the President, the Domestic Policy Council, and the National Security Council. During her tenure, Dr. Franklin led enterprise-wide programming for Veterans, military service members and their families.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.