U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Indy Guha is chief marketing officer at Signifyd.
Jeffery is a senior analyst serving financial services digital strategy professionals, helping them evaluate the implications of digital innovation on their businesses. His research focuses on the intersection of secular trends and technological advancements, such as the internet of things (IoT) and sensors, artificial intelligence and machine learning, and natural language processing, as these advancements are changing the way financial services firms do business and interact with their customers.
Jeffery has more than 10 years of experience working with C-suite executives and senior business leaders to shape business strategy at insurance clients. Prior to joining Forrester, he was an associate director at Ernst & Young (EY), where he led EY’s Americas’ insurance sector market research and insights program, working closely with senior engagement partners to drive growth at key global and US accounts. Before EY, Jeffery was a senior manager at PriceWaterhouseCoopers (PwC), where he delivered insurance industry and company research, analysis, and thought leadership support to client service partners and their engagement teams during consulting pursuits and engagements. Prior to PwC, Jeffery was employed for five years as an equity analyst at global and regional investment banks, covering the retail and consumer and automotive aftermarket industries.
Jeffery holds an MBA from the Darden School at the University of Virginia in Charlottesville, Virginia. He received his bachelor’s degree in agribusiness from Florida A&M University in Tallahassee, Florida.
Jay Clayton chaired the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission from 2017 to 2020. He currently serves as chairman of the Board of Directors of Apollo Global Management, senior policy advisor and of counsel at Sullivan & Cromwell, and adjunct professor at the University of Pennsylvania Carey Law School.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.