U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Carolyn M. Glynn, Esq., is a trusts and estates attorney in New York City with the law firm of Offit & Kurman, PA and advises high net worth families in the areas of estate planning, retirement planning and business succession planning. She can be reached at carolyn.glynn@offitkurman.com.
Henry Montag is a Certified Financial Planner who has been in practice since 1976, with offices in Long Island, N.Y. He is the founder and principal of The TOLI Center East, which provides independent consultative fee-based life insurance performance evaluations for trustees, their advisers, and high-net-worth individuals. He has lectured extensively on the proper utilization of financial products to the New York State Bar Association, the New York State Society of CPAs, the AICPA, and NCCPA. He has also appeared on Fox Business, Wall Street Week and News 12. He co-authored “The Advisors’ and Trustees’ Guide to Managing Risk and Avoiding a Client Crisis.” Reach him at henry@thetolicentereast.com or (516) 695-4662.
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The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.