U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
James M. Brower Jr., CPA, is a partner and State and Local Tax Leader at Marks Paneth LLP.
Chana R. Schoenberger is the editor-in-chief of American Banker. Previously, she was the editor-in-chief of Financial Planning after joining Arizent in 2020.
She has conducted print and on-stage interviews with top executives, regulators, and experts, including:
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In her prior role, she was the managing editor for U.S. wealth management at J.P. Morgan. Before that, she was a columnist and freelance journalist, and previously worked at Bloomberg News, Dow Jones/The Wall Street Journal, and Forbes. A graduate of Harvard College, she received her master's degree as part of Columbia Journalism School's Knight-Bagehot Fellowship in Economic and Business Journalism. Currently, she serves on the board of the journalists' professional association SABEW, the Society for Advancing Business Editing and Writing. She is now based in the Boston area after living in New York City, Tokyo and Canada.
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The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.