U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Michael S. Edmiston is an attorney with Jonathan W. Evans & Associates and is the immediate past president of PIABA.
He is a former NASD Dispute Resolution senior staff attorney and business manager for a national dispute resolution firm. Since 2006, he has represented investors in claims against brokerage firms, RIAs and other financial services companies.
David P. Meyer is the current president of PIABA and the managing principal of the law firm MeyerWilson.
As Vice President, Data Science in RGA Reinsurance Company's Global Research and Data Analytics department, Jeff Heaton works primarily with modeling risk for underwriting systems using electronic health records. In this role, Jeff's IT background allows him to bridge the gap between complex data science problems and proven software development. Jeff joined RGA in 2001 as a member of the Information Technology (IT) group to design and implement systems for retrocession administration and premium calculation, and transitioned to a data science role in 2013. He is a frequent speaker and author for organizations such as the Society of Actuaries (SOA), the Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers (IEEE), and for academic journals. Jeff has authored several books on artificial intelligence, and teaches a graduate course at Washington University in St. Louis on this subject. Jeff is a senior member of the IEEE and a Fellow of the Life Management Institute (FLMI). He holds a Master of Information Management (MIM) degree from Washington University in St. Louis and a Ph.D. in computer science from Nova Southeastern University.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.