U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
There are signs of a slowdown in the economic recovery as the COVID-19 pandemic continued to spread.
As Head of Risk Management, Laura Levenstein has responsibility for BAM's risk management strategy and its oversight, including acting as chair of the Enterprise Risk Committee. Laura also serves on the Management, Underwriting and Credit Policy and Surveillance Committees. Before joining BAM, she was Senior Managing Director for Global Public, Project and Infrastructure Finance, which includes US public finance, global sub-sovereign, sovereign, project and infrastructure finance, at Moody's Investors Service. In that position, as part of the evaluation of the various rated entities, she was responsible for evaluating all types of risk in these sectors to the extent it could impact the entities' credit profiles. Laura was also responsible for managing all aspects of the rating business relevant to those sectors including, rating assignment, rating methodologies, process operations, strategy, financial performance, rating quality and reputational risks. Prior positions in her over 20-year career at Moody's included Senior Managing Director for Americas and Global Financial Institutions. Laura holds a B.A. in Mathematics from Cornell University.
Avani M. Desai is president at Top 100 Firm Schellman & Co. Inc., and a member of the ISACA.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.