U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Lewis Rinaudo Cohen is the co-chair of the digital assets and emerging technology practice group at Cahill Gordon & Reindel LLP, known as CahillNXT, which focuses on the use of blockchain, crypto assets and tokenization across all aspects of capital markets and all areas of economic activity. Lewis is a frequent public speaker on the topic of blockchain and the financial markets, and has been included for many years as a "Band 1" practitioner by leading independent firm Chambers and Partners USA.
Jason Rozovsky is head of legal at Interop Labs, the initial developer of the Axelar network, the Web3 interoperability platform. Jason has worked in the blockchain space for nearly a decade, having previously been global legal lead for blockchain at Accenture and assistant general counsel at R3, an enterprise blockchain company.
Alice Grey Harrison is managing partner of AGH Consulting Group.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.