U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and other organizations are sounding the alarm about the impact of President Trump’s order.
Kirstin Marr is the Chief Analytics Officer at Insurity, a leading provider of cloud-based core system solutions and data analytics for the world's largest insurers, brokers and MGAs. Previously, Marr was the president of Valen Analytics and one of the pioneers of the Insurance Careers Movement coalition, a grassroots initiative of more than 1,000 insurance organizations raising awareness of what insurance has to offer millennials. Before Valen, Marr ran B2B marketing for internet technology pioneer and market leader ServiceMagic.com (now HomeAdvisor). She has a passion for building companies that invent leading-edge technologies to improve customers' lives and solve the inefficiencies that exist in traditional marketplaces.
Gerard Griffin is CEO and founder of AnyDay, the world’s first vertically integrated provider of end-to-end earned wage access and other financial wellness solutions. Thanks to the payments infrastructure of its parent QRails, the AnyDay platform enables payroll processors, human capital management companies, workforce management providers, and large corporations to deliver instant payment of earned wages to employees at low to no cost.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.