U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Brian Huang is the co-founder and CEO of Glider.
Jasmin Guthmann is a strategist, storyteller, and executive leader operating at the forefront of business transformation and modern technology. As Community Chair and former Executive Board Member of the MACH Alliance, she empowers organisations to cut through complexity and drive tangible outcomes through clarity, creativity, and composable thinking.
Charity Karanja is an attorney at Butler Snow LLP in the Public Finance, Tax Incentives and Credit Markets Group. She holds the Development Finance Certified Professional (DFCP) designation through the Council of Development Finance Agencies (CDFA). She is recognized as one of The Bond Buyer's 2025 Rising Stars and has the distinction of being one of six women in the nation named to the 2024 Class of the Caren S. Franzini Fellowship, a merit- based program by the CDFA Foundation, recognizing outstanding women in development finance for their leadership and dedication to the advancement of the industry.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.