U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Dr. Bart Hildreth is professor and former dean at the Andrew Young School of Policy Studies at Georgia State University in Atlanta. Previously, Bart spent 30 years as a business school professor at Wichita State University (including interim business dean), LSU, and Kent State. His expertise is state and local finance, with a specific focus on municipal securities and tax policy.He is a public member of the Board of Directors of the Municipal Securities Rulemaking Board (2012-2015). He has served on the National Advisory Council on State and Local Budgeting and the Governmental Accounting Standards Advisory Council, received two gubernatorial appointments to serve on the board of the Kansas Development Finance Authority, chaired a state-wide tax review committee, served on several GFOA national committees (including the disclosure task forces), and held the position of Director of Finance for the City of Akron, Ohio where he had financial responsibility for the successful workout of a technical default on a waste-to-energy facility.Since 1989, he has served as the editor-in-chief of the only refereed journal devoted to municipal securities, the Municipal Finance Journal. In addition to numerous journal articles and books, his publications include State and Local Government Debt Issuance and Management, the Handbook on Taxation, and Budgeting: Politics and Power (Oxford University Press, 2010).A Fulbright Scholar (at McGill University, Montreal), he also received the 2008 national award for lifetime scholarly achievement in the field of public budgeting and financial management. Bart�s degrees are from the University of Alabama (B.A.), Auburn University at Montgomery (M.P.A) and the University of Georgia (Ph.D.).
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The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.