U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Zora Law is a senior actuary with the Los Angeles office of Milliman. Zora has extensive reserving and analytical capabilities and specializes in serving technology and sharing economy clients, as well as commercial and personal lines.
Nickolas A. Alvarado, FCAS, CSPA, MAAA is a consulting actuary with Milliman's Orange County office. Nick's expertise includes insurance product development, advanced ratemaking, predictive modeling, the US regulatory environment, and insurtech. Nick regularly speaks and participates at industry events and publishes on a variety of topics.
Dr. Paul Pallath is vice president of applied AI at Searce. He is a distinguished executive leader in the world of digital, data and artificial intelligence with a career spanning over three decades. Throughout his career, he has worked with a diverse range of companies, from startups to Fortune 500 organizations, and has gained extensive experience in developing and implementing AI solutions that drive business growth and innovation.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.