U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Jeff Canfield is Head of Innovation at the Argo Group, where he seeks to transform ideas into measurable change. Prior to his current role, Canfield served as SVP and head of E&S Casualty at Colony Specialty, also a part of Argo Group. Before joining Colony in 2016, he served as senior vice president and product line leader of excess casualty at Aspen Insurance. Prior to that, he served as profit lines manager for excess casualty national accounts at AIG. He holds a bachelor’s degree in political science and government from the University of Richmond in Virginia.
Glenn Wisegarver is founder and CEO of Sigma IQ Inc., which makes an account reconciliation platform powered by AI.
Penny Crosman is Executive Editor, Technology at American Banker. She is based in New York. She guides technology coverage at American Banker and other Arizent brands. She also hosts the American Banker podcast and from time to time writes about artificial intelligence and related tech topics.
Prior to taking on this role, she was Editor in Chief of Bank Technology News. She has held senior editorial roles at Bank Systems & Technology, Wall Street & Technology, Intelligent Enterprise, Network Magazine and Imaging Magazine.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.