U.S. states saw their tax revenue drop by about $31 billion, or 6 percent, from March through August, compared to the same period a year earlier, as the pandemic triggered economic shutdowns across the country, according to data from 44 states compiled by the Urban Institute.
The scale of the drop appears smaller than expected, relative to the depth of the economic contraction, and comes after several states have reported that their revenue didn’t decline as much as anticipated despite business shutdowns and increased unemployment. In August, when much of the country was reopening, state revenue climbed about 1.1 percent from a year earlier, the Urban Institute found.
Scott Bales is vice president of enterprise solution engineering and delivery at Replicon.
Joanna Nicholas is counsel in Mayer Brown’s New York office and a member of the Banking & Finance practice. She focuses on securitization and structured finance transactions with an emphasis on CLO transactions and mortgage related facilities of residential mortgage loans.
Kevin Robertson is the executive managing director and chief growth officer at HSA Bank, a leading provider of health savings accounts. Kevin serves as chairman of the American Bankers Association HSA Council. Kevin has 30 years of experience in banking, insurance and financial services, covering a diverse spectrum of employee benefits and insurance products and services.
In addition to his years of experience in leading business groups and managing growth organizations, he has a diverse background in operations, as well as legislative and regulatory affairs. As a frequently published author and sought-after speaker, Kevin is a recognized expert and well-known figure in the consumer-directed healthcare industry.
The tax figures come as Republicans in Washington balk at extending aid to states and cities to help cover budget deficits that are expected to continue as the coronavirus weighs on the economy. Experts say that states’ financial outlooks could worsen as the effects of the stimulus bill fade and high unemployment reduces tax bills next year.
The August increase should be viewed with caution since income-tax deadlines were pushed back to July, which could have resulted in some revenue being processed later, according to Lucy Dadayan, senior research associate with the Urban-Brookings Tax Policy Center at the Urban Institute. Personal income-tax collections, which rose 3.8 percent in August, were in some cases supported by backlogged unemployment insurance benefits subject to withholding tax, Dadayan said.
Between March and August, tax revenues fell 6.4 percent year over year, with 36 states reporting declines over that period, the report said. Between March and August, eight states, including Washington and Georgia, reported growth in tax revenue.
“Due to the shifting in timing of tax receipts this past year, it is crucial to view August year-over-year revenue gains and fiscal year to date data with caution,” Dadayan said in the report.